chuy garcia losing shows poll

According to a recent voter opinion poll Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Congressman Paul Vallas are statistically tied for first place, while Congressman Chuy Garcia has dropped from the position of front-runner to third. A runoff election is held on April 4 between the top two finishers if no candidate receives 50% plus one of the vote on February 28.

Garcia targeted for Lightfoot’s attacks

Collin Corbett, a Republican political consultant located in the Inverness suburb, oversaw the survey. None of the nine candidates running in the first round of voting are connected to Corbett. According to Corbett, the Garcia team may have believed they could cruise into the runof. Garcia has been the target of Lightfoot’s constant attacks in TV ads and public appearances.

Possible Runoof Scenarios

Three possible runoff scenarios were presented to the electorate:

Vallas has a sizable advantage over Garcia, leading 45% to 25%, while Lightfoot and Vallas are tied at 40% each. Lightfoot leads Garcia 42% to 35%. The mayor referred to Garcia on Wednesday as “a Trojan horse dragging his corruption” to city hall in a rhetorical flourish that was not substantiated by any facts that was made publicly available.

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The campaign, rallies & promortions

On Thursday afternoon, Garcia’s team uploaded a video to YouTube presenting Vallas as a Republican who would not defend abortion rights. At a recent campaign rally, Vallas declared his ardent support for the right to an abortion.

An off-camera female announcer can be heard in the Garcia campaign video, which a spokeswoman indicated wouldn’t air as a TV commercial, saying, “We have to defend our rights in Chicago. But since he is a Republican, Paul Vallas won’t.”

Vallas spokewoman charged Garcia’s campaign

Vallas spokewoman charged Garcia's campaign

“I lean more Republican. I am fundamentally against abortion, “Vallas states in the commercial. “Chicago deserves a reliable person. Chuy Garcia will continue to advocate for more access to reproductive healthcare “The announcer, a woman, says.

A Vallas spokeswoman charged the Garcia campaign with using deceptive tactics. She said that Vallas declared himself a supporter of pro-choice public policy in the very same interview from which Vallas’s quotation was extracted.

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The survey and results

Chicago mayoral election polls

In a memo on the poll, Corbetter stated that “we surveyed 614 likely voters in Chicago from January 26–January 30th, with 41% of those live responses, for a margin of error of 3.95%.” Two further, very different voter opinion surveys were briefly highlighted in’s Illinois newsletter on Thursday.

They were supervised by 1983 Labs, a team that Politico’s newsletter reported comprises Adam Gunther, a former employee of Chicago’s North Side-based KNI Communications, and Benjamin Bobo, a University of Chicago graduate with a master’s degree.

The two surveys by 1983 Labs, according to Politico’s Illinois newsletter, found Mayor Lightfoot with approximately 16.5%, Willie Wilson with approximately 14.5%, and Paul Vallas with approximately 10.5%.

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Complete Memo from Corbett

  • The Frontrunners Are Lightfoot and Vallas: With Lightfoot leading by just 2% in the first matchup (23%-21%) and them tied in a head-to-head battle (40%-40%), Lightfoot and Vallas are tied statistically.
  • Garcia Is Fading: Garcia’s poll percentage has dropped to just 13%, and in head-to-head comparisons, he behind both Lightfoot and Vallas (-20% versus Vallas and -7% against Lightfoot).
  • If Turnout Is Similar to November, Vallas Benefits: If voter turnout in this election is similar to that in November, with a decline in female and minority turnout, that favours Vallas and disadvantages Lightfoot & Garcia. In the first match, Vallas would gain 2% while Lightfoot and Garcia would each lose 1%, placing Vallas ahead. Vallas would have a 4% advantage over Lightfoot in a head-to-head comparison. To win this race, Lightfoot and Garcia must increase the participation of Black and Hispanic voters.
Complete Memo from Corbett
  • Gender breakdown: Vallas and Garcia both perform substantially better with men: among men, Vallas has a lead of 24% over Lightfoot’s 22% and Garcia’s 15%. Lightfoot performs significantly better with women; she leads with 27%, while Vallas is at 19% and Garcia is at just 8%. Making sure there is a significant female turnout needs to be Lightfoot’s first goal.
  • Age breakdown: Older voters are more supportive of Vallas. Only 14% of voters under the age of 45 support him, but 26% of those over the age of 65 do. In contrast, Lightfoot performs better with younger people, receiving 29% of their support.
  • The results by race are as follows: Garcia leads among Hispanic voters (36% to Vallas’ 21% and Lightfoot’s 10%), Vallas leads among White voters (31% to Lightfoot’s 18% and Vallas’ 11%), and Lightfoot leads among Black voters (37% to Wilson’s 12%, Vallas’ 12%, Johnson’s 10%, and Garcia’s 3%).
  • Party breakdown: Vallas is doing incredibly well with Republicans and Independents, outperforming Lightfoot among Independents by over 12% and outperforming Wilson among Republicans by 38%. In Chicago, where Democrats make up the majority of voters, Lightfoot is doing incredibly well, outpolling Vallas by 11% and Garcia by 16%.

Garcia’s decline is a big surprise for everyone

Everyone is surprised by Garcia’s rapid decline. Recently, he was the front-runner. It’s also unexpected given Chuy is one of the most powerful political forces in Illinois, winning nearly all of the races they participate in. However, they did not treat this race seriously until approximately a week ago for whatever reason. Voters began casting mail-in ballots weeks ago.


  • Hritik Chawla

    Hrithik Chawla Here, I moved from Srilanka and now am a resident of United States. I am currently an editor and have been in the teaching field for many years. I love meeting new people and getting to know them on a personal level. My skills include data science and I am a hard worker.

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